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Market Commentary – 04/11/08
28 July, 2011
Market Commentary – 04/11/08 – Simon Eastman – Senior Broker
The past few days trading have been dictated by speculation over UK interest rates. Due to the current economic climate and fears of a deep recession, markets have been calling for an interest rate cut when the Bank of England meets this Thursday.
Gordon Brown requested drastic action by the governor Mervyn King to help bolster the flagging economy and the markets has widely expected another 50 point cut in rates, from 4.5 percent to 4 percent.
Yesterday exchange rates were affected very little by the purchasing managers index figures which showed the UK manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month as demand for products both here and from abroad tipped the sector into recession (Recession is signified by two consecutive quarters of negative growth).
During afternoon trading the tables turned as the pound took a battering across the board. The cause, market speculation of a 1 percent cut in interest rates rather than just a 50 point cut. The pound dropped 1.5 percent against the euro and at one point was down 3 percent against the US dollar, 3.5 percent against the Canadian dollar and over 3 percent against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Although some analysts in the market are not putting the pounds weakness down to the chance of a cut but more to the lack of lack of decisive action by the central bank in helping the economy.
“There’s been a lot of apprehension ahead of the BoE meeting, and in our view with good reason,” said Robert Minikin, senior FX strategist at Standard Chartered. “It’s the sluggishness of the policy that’s been affecting sterling. The problem is not whether they move 50 or 100 basis points; the problem is that they should have been easing aggressively, probably since early 2008,” he added.
So with the US cutting their interest rates last week by 50 points, the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates by 75 points today, the markets now await Thursday for interest rate decisions by the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Cuts should help to boost the economy but whether more will be needed will become apparent in the coming weeks.
If you are in the process of buying a property abroad these uncertain volatile currency markets could unravel your plans so speak with a Currency Index broker today to discuss the options available to you, like a forward contract, used for eliminating the market risk.
If you have any question relating to the content of the above article or for some friendly guidance on your upcoming currency purchase please contact Simon Eastman, Senior FX Broker at Currency Index on 020 7903 5444 or email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Weekly Market Outlook
28 July, 2011
Monday 29th November 2010 to Friday 3rd December 2010
This week the main story is likely to be the continuing developments of the Irish bank bailout – and whether there will be any knock-on effects elsewhere in the Eurozone. For now the Euro has started to strengthen.
Elsewhere we have economic releases in Australia, Canada, the USA and Switzerland, all likely to affect rates for sending money abroad. Contact your foreign exchange broker for the latest rates and news.
0930 – UK mortgage approvals & money supply
1000 – Eurozone economic & consumer confidence
1330 – Canadian current account
Overnight – UK consumer confidence
0030 – Australian current account
1000 – Eurozone unemployment & CPI inflation
1330 – Canadian GDP
1500 – US consumer confidence
0030 – Australian GDP
0700 – UK Nationwide house prices
0900 – Eurozone manufacturing inflation
0930 – UK manufacturing inflation
1500 – US manufacturing & construction
0030 – Australian retail sales & trade balance
0645 – Swiss GDP
1000 – Eurozone GDP & PPI inflation
1245 – Eurozone interest rate decision
1330 – US jobless claims
0815 – Swiss CPI inflation
1000 – Eurozone retail sales
1200 – Canadian unemployment
1330 – US non-farm payrolls & unemployment rate
Sending Money Abroad
28 July, 2011
Buying a property abroad, bringing money back to the UK, or sending funds to a supplier, can be complicated. Thankfully, at Currency Index, we are on hand to help you, whether you are buying a villa in Valencia, or importing ink from India.
Click below for our country-by-country guides which will tell you all you need to know about the currency and local banking procedures.
Call us on 0800 043 2623 (or +44 1923 69 53 53 from abroad), or click here to make an enquiry online.
Click here to find out how Currency Index Ltd can supply the very best Euro Exchange Rates.
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28 July, 2011
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This week’s currency news – GDP out tomorrow
28 July, 2011
By far the most important data release this week in the UK will be Tuesday’s GDP figure – the first estimate of growth in the UK economy from March to June. There is a real worry that we could see a negative result.Read more
GDP slows to 0.2pc, but stays above zero
28 July, 2011
This morning’s first estimate of GDP for March to June showed a 0.2% growth in the economy – hardly signs of an imminent economic recovery, but at least a positive figure which has eased fears of a ‘double dip’ recession.Read more